Combined observational and modeling based study of the aerosol indirect effect

International audienceThe indirect effect of aerosols via liquid clouds is investigated by comparing aerosol and cloud characteristics from the Global Climate Model CAM-Oslo to those observed by the MODIS instrument onboard the TERRA and AQUA satellites http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov). The comparison is carried out for 15 selected regions ranging from remote and clean to densely populated and polluted. For each region, the regression coefficient and correlation coefficient for the following parameters are calculated: Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Liquid Cloud Optical Thickness, Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Liquid Cloud Droplet Effective Radius and Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Cloud Liquid Water Path. Modeled and observed correlation coefficients and regression coefficients are then compared for a 3-year period starting in January 2001. Additionally, global maps for a number of aerosol and cloud parameters crucial for the understanding of the aerosol indirect effect are compared for the same period of time. Significant differences are found between MODIS and CAM-Oslo both in the regional and global comparison. However, both the model and the observations show a positive correlation between Aerosol Optical Depth and Cloud Optical Depth in practically all regions and for all seasons, in agreement with the current understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. The correlation between Aerosol Optical Depth and Liquid Cloud Droplet Effective Radius is variable both in the model and the observations. However, the model reports the expected negative correlation more often than the MODIS data. Aerosol Optical Depth is overall positively correlated to Cloud Liquid Water Path both in the model and the observations, with a few regional exceptions

Extensive reduction of surface UV radiation since 1750 in world's populated regions

Human activity influences a wide range of components that affect the surface UV radiation levels, among them ozone at high latitudes. We calculate the effect of human-induced changes in the surface erythemally weighted ultra-violet radiation (UV-E) since 1750. We compare results from a radiative transfer model to surface UV-E radiation for year 2000 derived by satellite observations (from Total Ozone Mapping Spectroradiometer) and to ground based measurements at 14 sites. The model correlates well with the observations; the correlation coefficients are 0.97 and 0.98 for satellite and ground based measurements, respectively. In addition to the effect of changes in ozone, we also investigate the effect of changes in SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub>, the direct and indirect effects of aerosols, albedo changes and aviation-induced contrails and cirrus. The results show an increase of surface UV-E in polar regions, most strongly in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, our study also shows an extensive surface UV-E reduction over most land areas; a reduction up to 20% since 1750 is found in some industrialized regions. This reduction in UV-E over the industrial period is particularly large in highly populated regions

Modelling of nitrate particles: importance of sea salt

International audienceA thermo dynamical model for treatment of gas/aerosol partitioning of semi volatile inorganic aerosols has been implemented in a global chemistry and aerosol transport model (Oslo CTM2). The sulphur cycle and sea salt particles have been implemented earlier in the Oslo CTM2 and the focus of this study is on whether nitrate particles are formed as fine mode ammonium nitrate or react on existing sea salt particles. The model results show that ammonium nitrate particles play a non-negligible role in the total aerosol composition in certain industrialized regions and therefore have a significant local radiative forcing. On a global scale the aerosol optical depth of ammonium nitrate is relatively small due to limited availability of ammonia and reaction with sea salt particles. Inclusion of sea salt in the calculations reduces the aerosol optical depth and burden of ammonium nitrate particles by 25% on a global scale but with large regional variations

Effects of 9-hour time zone changes on fatigue and circadian rhythms of sleep/wake and core temperature

Physiological and psychological disruptions caused by transmeridian flights may affect the ability of flight crews to meet operational demands. To study these effects, 9 Royal Norwegian Airforces P3-Orion crewmembers flew from Norway to California (-9 hr), and back (+9 hr). Rectal temperature, heart rate and wrist activity were recorded every 2 min, fatigue and mood were rated every 2 hr during the waking day, and logs were kept of sleep times and ratings. Subjects also completed 4 personality inventories. The time-zone shifts produced negative changes in mood which persisted longer after westward flights. Sleep quality (subjective and objective) and duration were slightly disrupted (more after eastward flights). The circadian rhythms of sleep/wake and temperature both completed the 9-hr delay by day 5 in California, although temperature adjusted more slowly. The size of the delay shift was significantly correlated with scores on extraversion and achievement need personality scales. Response to the 9-hr advance were more variable. One subject exhibited a 15-hr delay in his temperature rhythm, and an atypical sleep/nap pattern. On average, the sleep/wake cycle (but not the temperature rhythm), completed the 9-hr advance by the end of the study. Both rhythms adapted more slowly after the eastward flight

A new method for normalized interpretation of antimicrobial resistance from disk test results for comparative purposes.

Objective To evaluate a calibration method for disk diffusion antibiotic susceptibility tests, using zone diameter values generated in the individual laboratory as the internal calibrator for combinations of antibiotic and bacterial species. Methods The high-zone side of zone histogram distributions was first analyzed by moving averages to determine the peak position of the susceptible population. The accumulated percentages of isolates for the high zone diameter values were calculated and converted into probit values. The normal distribution of the ideal population of susceptible strains was then determined by using the least-squares method for probit values against zone diameters, and the ideal population was thereby defined, including mean and standard deviation. Zone diameter values were obtained from laboratories at the Karolinska Hospital (KS) and Växjö Hospital (VX), and from two laboratories (LabA, LabB) in Argentina. The method relies on well standardized disk tests, but is independent of differences in MIC limits and zone breakpoints, and does not require the use of reference strains. Resistance was tentatively set at below 3 SD from the calculated, ideal mean zone diameter of the susceptible population. Results The method, called normalized interpretation of antimicrobial resistance, was tested on results from the KS and VX clinical microbiology laboratories, using the disk diffusion method for antimicrobial susceptibility tests, and for two bacterial species, Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli. In total, 114 217 test results were included for the clinical isolates, and 3582 test results for control strains. The methodology at KS and VX followed the standard of the Swedish Reference Group for Antibiotics (SRGA). Zone diameter histograms for control strains were first analyzed to validate the procedure, and a comparison of actual means with the calculated means showed a correlation coefficient of r = 0.998. Results for clinical isolates at the two laboratories showed an excellent agreement for 54 of 57 combinations of antibiotic and bacterial species between normalized interpretations and the interpretations given by the laboratories. There were difficulties with E. coli and mecillinam, and S. aureus and tetracycline and rifampicin. The method was also tested on results from two laboratories using the NCCLS standard, and preliminary results showed very good agreement with quality-controlled laboratory interpretations. Conclusions The normalized resistance interpretation offers a new approach to comparative surveillance studies whereby the inhibition zone diameter results from disk tests in clinical laboratories can be used for calibration of the test

The influence of altitude on the anaerobic and aerobic capacities of men in work Final scientific report

Altitude influence on anaerobic and aerobic capacities of working me

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well‐mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane’s RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC’s value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario

Slow and fast response of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations

We are investigating the fast and slow responses of changes in mean and extreme precipitation to different climate forcing mechanisms, such as greenhouse gas and solar forcing, to understand whether rapid adjustments are important for extreme precipitation. To disentangle the effect of rapid adjustment to a given forcing on the overall change in extreme precipitation we use a linear regression method that has been previously applied to mean precipitation. Equilibrium experiments with preindustrial CO2 concentrations and reduced solar constant were compared with a four times CO2 concentration experiment for 10 state-of-the-art climate models. We find that the two forcing mechanisms, greenhouse gases and solar, impose clearly different rapid adjustment signals in the mean precipitation, while such difference is difficult to discern for extreme precipitation due to large internal variability. In contrast to mean precipitation, changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature trends and do not seem to depend on the forcing mechanism

Secondary organic aerosol in the global aerosol ? chemical transport model Oslo CTM2

International audienceThe global chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 has been extended to include the formation, transport and deposition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Precursor hydrocarbons which are oxidised to form condensible species include both biogenic species such as terpenes and isoprene, as well as species emitted predominantly by anthropogenic activities (toluene, m-xylene, methylbenzene and other aromatics). A model simulation for 2004 gives an annual global SOA production of approximately 55 Tg. Of this total, 2.5 Tg is found to consist of the oxidation products of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, and about 15 Tg is formed by the oxidation products of isoprene. The global production of SOA is increased to about 69 Tg yr?1 by allowing semi-volatile species to partition to ammonium sulphate aerosol. This brings modelled organic aerosol values closer to those observed, however observations in Europe remain significantly underestimated. Allowing SOA to partition into ammonium sulphate aerosol increases the contribution of anthropogenic SOA from about 4.5% to 9.4% of the total production. Total modelled organic aerosol (OA) values are found to represent a lower fraction of the measured values in winter (when primary organic aerosol (POA) is the dominant OA component) than in summer, which may be an indication that estimates of POA emissions are too low. Additionally, for measurement stations where the summer OA values are higher than in winter, the model generally underestimates the increase in summertime OA. In order to correctly model the observed increase in OA in summer, additional SOA sources or formation mechanisms may be necessary. The importance of NO3 as an oxidant of SOA precursors is found to vary regionally, causing up to 50%?60% of the total amount of SOA near the surface in polluted regions and less than 25% in more remote areas, if the yield of condensible oxidation products for ?-pinene is used for NO3 oxidation of all terpenes. Reducing the yield for ?-pinene and limonene oxidation in line with recent measurements reduces the global fraction of SOA formed from NO3 oxidation products from 27% to about 21%. This study underscores the need for SOA to be represented in a more realistic way in global aerosol models in order to better reproduce observations of organic aerosol burdens in industrialised and biomass burning regions

Is there a trend in cirrus cloud cover due to aircraft traffic?

Trends in cirrus cloud cover have been estimated based on 16 years of data from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project). The results have been spatially correlated with aircraft density data to determine the changes in cirrus cloud cover due to aircraft traffic. The correlations are only moderate, as many other factors have also contributed to changes in cirrus. Still we regard the results to be indicative of an impact of aircraft on cirrus amount. The main emphasis of our study is on the area covered by the METEOSAT satellite to avoid trends in the ISCCP data resulting from changing satellite viewing geometry. In Europe, which is within the METEOSAT region, we find indications of a trend of about 1-2% cloud cover per decade due to aircraft, in reasonable agreement with previous studies. The positive trend in cirrus in areas of high aircraft traffic contrasts with a general negative trend in cirrus. Extrapolation in time to cover the entire period of aircraft operations and in space to cover the global scale yields a mean estimate of 0.03 Wm^-2 (lower limit 0.01, upper limit 0.08 Wm^-2) for the radiative forcing due to aircraft induced cirrus. The mean is close to the value given by IPCC (1999) as an upper limit